Bad news for coffee lovers: Your morning cup of coffee could soon cost more than usual, and it’s not just the price of the beans at play. The coffee industry is facing significant challenges due to climate change and supply shortages, leading traders and companies to seek alternative solutions. As weather patterns continue to shift globally, farmers and coffee suppliers are adjusting to a world where climate change is increasingly disrupting traditional coffee production.
Over the past year, the price of arabica coffee has surged, with a notable jump of 25% since the start of 2025. The price of arabica coffee, which makes up roughly 60% of global coffee production, has risen to more than $4 per pound, the highest it has been in years. The price hike has been largely driven by the extreme weather events linked to climate change, which have created serious disruptions in key coffee-growing regions worldwide. While U.S. coffee prices are on the rise, the impact of climate change on agriculture extends beyond coffee, with other commodities like chocolate also experiencing price hikes for similar reasons.
Robusta coffee, ranked second to arabica in global popularity, is gaining attention as a potential alternative. Robusta coffee has a hardier nature and is more resistant to pests, diseases, and the rising temperatures that are affecting coffee crops. This makes robusta an attractive choice for farmers facing the uncertain impacts of climate change. Its resilience to extreme weather conditions and agricultural threats positions it as a viable option for combating some of the challenges arabica is encountering.
Despite robusta’s resilience, it’s not without its own challenges. While arabica is often favored for its smoother and milder flavor, robusta beans are known for their stronger, more bitter taste. However, as the demand for robusta increases, companies are exploring ways to blend the two types of coffee to preserve the flavor profile that consumers prefer while benefiting from robusta’s climate adaptability.
Robusta coffee’s disease and pest resistance are major advantages for coffee producers in regions where climate change is having severe effects. Yet, if pesticides are needed for crop protection, their use must be carefully monitored and controlled. The use of chemicals on robusta should be temporary and managed in a way that reduces ecological damage and health risks to consumers and the environment.
In countries like Brazil, which produces more coffee than any other nation, and Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee exporter, severe weather conditions are having a noticeable impact on coffee yields. Droughts and floods are harming crop production in these regions, which account for over half of global coffee supply. As a result, arabica coffee production has been significantly reduced, leading to a worldwide shortage.
This coffee shortage has driven U.S. imports to their lowest levels in months, contributing to higher prices across the board. The Brazilian government expects arabica production to fall by 12% this year, a significant decrease from previous years. If forecasts prove accurate, this would represent the lowest coffee production since 2022. These supply issues are likely to keep retail coffee prices elevated, especially in the first quarter of 2025, with major coffee companies expected to pass some of these higher costs on to consumers.
Though robusta coffee is not the perfect solution for every coffee drinker due to its flavor profile, its increasing use in blends could help stabilize supply and provide a more sustainable option for the coffee industry. The impact of climate change on the global coffee industry is undeniable, but robusta’s resilience is offering a potential path forward as coffee producers strive to maintain a consistent, high-quality product.
Experts like Jeffrey Sachs, a sustainable economist, have warned that climate change will continue to disrupt agricultural production, not only for coffee but for many essential crops. The key to minimizing these impacts lies in both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in more sustainable farming practices that can ensure the future stability of coffee production.
As coffee drinkers, we may face higher prices in the near future, but the emergence of robusta coffee as a viable alternative and the adaptation of coffee-growing practices to new climate realities could help mitigate future risks. For now, whether you’re a fan of robusta or arabica, it’s clear that the world of coffee is changing — and we may need to adjust our expectations along with it.
